难怪电信公司对 5G 感到恐惧<trepidation

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沃达丰 (Vodafone) 对 G点的搜索

难怪电信公司对5G感到恐惧 (trepidation)

(经济学人 2019/Aug./24 期)

全球电信业的繁荣在近20年前达到顶峰，其目的就是为了讽刺。它把有史以来最令人陶醉的 (intoxicating)两项技术——手机和互联网——结合到了一起。它引发了有史以来规模最大的一波破坏价值的收购浪潮。顶峰是总额 £225亿(350亿美元)于2000年在英国，出售第三代(3G)无线频谱，是一个极好的事，

所以设计它的研究员，使用一种滑稽的炫耀描述，这是自公元193年御林军出售罗马帝国给尤利安努斯（约133-193，罗马元老院议员）以来，最成功的拍卖。

活跃在欧洲各地的英国移动运营商沃达丰(Vodafone)，是当时疯狂的缩影。1999年，该公司斥资1120亿英镑对德国竞争对手曼内斯曼(Mannesmann)发起敌意收购，这是一场扣人心弦的史诗，持续了数月之久，部分背景是伦敦高档餐厅Savoy Grill。在这家餐厅里，双方无情地互相攻击。沃达丰在150轮竞标中，为其英国3G牌照出价近60亿英镑，超过任何其他公司。然后是2001年的电信泡沫破裂，几乎和尤利安努斯的统治结束一样突然。尤利安努斯的统治持续了整整9周。时至今日，这个问题仍然困扰着沃达丰。直到2000年，该公司的资产回报率一直保持在两位数的高位。自那以来，该公司每年的资产回报率要么微不足道，要么为负，只有一年例外。

沃达丰漫长的“黑暗时代”源于欧洲普遍存在的一个问题。电信公司已经建立了社交媒体、电子邮件、猫咪视频和其他通讯奇迹的网络，但是用户支付的使用这些网络的费用却在无情地缩水。可以理解的是，这使得这些公司对在下一代移动彩票(即建设第五代(5G)无线网络)上砸钱持谨慎态度。然而，他们面临着囚徒困境。如果他们都不参加，他们都可以避免一笔巨额账单。如果只有一个人这样做，一切都会很清楚。如果他们都这样做了，他们都会受苦。沃达丰(Vodafone)再次置身于行动的高潮。这一次，它的策略给了一个如何避免最坏陷阱的暗示。

为了更好地理解5G的前景和风险，回顾几代以前的2G，它把世界变成了一个相互连接的谈话场所。这项技术为沃达丰(Vodafone)等移动通信先驱带来了巨额利润。然而，它无法支持足够的数据来支持客户希望的视频通话、照片共享和其他移动互联网使用。这就产生了3G。

正如麦肯锡咨询公司的Ferry Grijpink所说，电信公司在3G上的赌注是正确的。但他们搞错了两件事:时机，以及从中赚钱的能力。加拿大的黑莓(BlackBerry)和iPhone的制造商苹果(Apple)才将移动互联网浏览带给了大众。与沃达丰等建立网络的公司受益不同，苹果获得了大部分回报，谷歌等搜索引擎和Facebook等社交网络也是如此。在最近十年，4G(和LTE)提供了3G的增强版本，数据速度和加载时间都大大加快。但是在发达国家，电信公司之间的激烈竞争使得他们以较低的成本提供更大的，通常是无限制的数据计划，这打击了盈利能力。在欧洲尤其如此，Grijpink先生统计了26家大型移动运营商，覆盖了与美国四大运营商(很快将变成三家)差不多大的区域。每个客户的月平均收入已从2006年的35美元降至20美元左右。

在这个密封的历史中有一些模式。咨询师威廉•韦伯(William Webb)在他的著作《5G神话》(The 5G Myth)中写道，每十年就会出现新一代移动连接。作为一个粗略的指南，他说每一个都提供了十倍的数据速度增长，比如从2G的每秒2千比特，到3G的每秒2兆比特，再到早期4G的每秒20兆比特。电信业的民间传说是偶数(2G和4G)比奇数表现得更好。

大肆宣传的是，5G的到来将打破这种模式。4G被广泛采用还不到十年。5G承诺将带来50倍的数据速度提升(比如每秒1千兆比特)。人们希望这将是革命性的，带来沉浸式游戏、增强现实眼镜、未来工厂甚至远程手术等好处。目前，全球移动通信行业每年花费近1600亿美元升级至5G, 22个5G网络已经建成并投入运营。

尽管如此，人们还是持怀疑态度。人们并没有要求clamouring)更快的数据，因为4G 已经给了他们足够的数据。在研究了《华尔街日报》记者的互联网使用情况后，学者们发现，即使同时观看几段视频，他们也只使用了可用带宽的一小部分。加快互联互通的许多工业逻辑，比如工厂更多地使用传感器，都可以由4G网络提供。目前还没有一种设备可以为5G提供令人信服的商业理由。韦伯调用航空航天业警惕，押注于越来越快的速度的风险。“5G可能最终会像协和式飞机一样——工程学上的一大壮举，但对除少数人以外的所有人来说价值有限。”

等待复兴

5G已经让沃达丰付出了代价。今年它削减了股息，部分原因是为了支付德国昂贵的频谱拍卖。但与许多同行一样，它将5G视为重振营收增长的一种方式。该公司表示，新技术将比4G在家庭和工作中支持更多的设备，将降低沃达丰处理大量数据的成本，并提高从汽车到医院等各个领域的通信可靠性。它的新老板尼克·里德(Nick Read)希望通过提供量身定制的5G服务，与客户建立更紧密的关系。客户越来越把无线连接视为一种商品。他还在游说政府刺激投资(而不是竞争)，以避免3G式的惨败。通过与英国、西班牙和意大利的移动运营商达成网络共享协议，他正在削减自己的基础设施成本。

这些都是可能缓解5G压力的好主意。但是，在类似于“杀手级应用”的东西出现，将5G带来的好处提高到数十亿美元之前，还不清楚谁会从中赚到多少钱。这是由电信公司来证明他们可以藐视历史。

English contents:

Vodafone’s search for the G-spot

No wonder telecoms firms view 5G with trepidation

T

he global

telecoms boom that reached its zenith almost two decades ago was made for satire. It united two of the most intoxicating technologies of all time, the mobile phone and the internet. It generated the biggest wave of value-destroying takeovers the world had ever seen. Its apex, the £22.5bn ($35bn) sale of third-generation (3G) wireless spectrum in Britain in 2000, was such a humdinger that the boffins who devised it described it, with a Pythonesque flourish, as the most successful auction since the Praetorian Guard sold the Roman Empire to Didius Julianus in 193AD.

Vodafone, a British mobile operator active across Europe, epitomised the madness of the time. Its £112bn hostile takeover launched in 1999 of Mannesmann, a German rival, was a gripping epic that went on for months—partly against the backdrop of the Savoy Grill, a posh London eatery where both sides mercilessly skewered each other. Vodafone bid almost £6bn over 150 rounds for its British 3

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licence, more than any other firm. Then came the telecoms bust of 2001, almost as abrupt as the end of Didius Julianus, whose reign lasted all of nine weeks. It still haunts Vodafone today. The company’s return on assets, in lofty double digits until 2000, has been negligible or negative every year since but one.

Vodafone’s protracted dark ages stem from a problem common throughout Europe. Telecoms firms have built the networks over which social media, emails, cat videos and other marvels of communication flow, but the sums customers pay to use them has shrunk relentlessly. Understandably, that makes the companies wary of splashing out fortunes on the next mobile lottery, building fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks. Yet they face a prisoner’s dilemma. If none of them takes part, they could all avoid a huge bill. If only one does, it will clean up. If all of them do, they all suffer. Once again Vodafone is in the thick of the action. This time its strategy gives an inkling of how to avoid the worst of the pitfalls.

To put the promise and perils of 5

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into perspective, go back a few generations—to 2G, which turned the world into an interconnected talking shop. That technology generated huge profits for mobile pioneers like Vodafone. It could not, however, support enough data to enable video calls, photo-sharing and other mobile internet use that customers wanted. That gave rise to 3G.

As Ferry Grijpink of McKinsey, a consultancy, puts it, the telecoms firms were on the right track with their bets on 3G. But they got two things wrong: the timing, and their ability to make money from it. It took Canada’s BlackBerry, and Apple, maker of the iPhone, to bring mobile internet browsing to the masses. Instead of benefiting companies like Vodafone that built the networks, Apple reaped most of the rewards, as did search engines like Google and social networks such as Facebook. During the current decade, 4G (and LTE) have provided enhanced versions of 3G, with much faster data speeds and loading times. But in rich countries fierce competition between telecoms firms has caused them to offer bigger, often unlimited data plans at low cost, hammering profitability. This is especially true in Europe, where Mr Grijpink counts 26 big mobile operators, covering a similar-sized territory as America’s four big providers (soon to become three). Average monthly revenue per customer has fallen from $35 in 2006 to around $20.

There are patterns in this potted history. In his book, “The 5G Myth”, William Webb, a consultant, writes that a new generation of mobile connectivity has emerged every decade. As a rough guide, he says each one provides a tenfold increase in data speeds, say from two kilobits a second with 2G, to two megabits a second with 3G to 20 megabits a second with early 4G. And telecoms folklore has it that the even numbers (2G and 4G) do better than odd ones.

The hype is that the arrival of 5

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will break the pattern. It is coming less than a decade after 4G was widely adopted. It promises to bring a 50-fold improvement in data speeds (say, one gigabit a second). And the hope is that it will be revolutionary, bringing benefits such as immersive gaming, augmented-reality glasses, factories of the future and even remote surgery. Already, the global industry is spending nearly $160bn a year upgrading towards 5G, and 22 5G networks are up and running.

Still, scepticism is in order. People are not clamouring for faster data, because 4

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gives them enough already. After studying the internet usage of reporters at theWall Street Journal, academics found that they use only a fraction of their available bandwidth, even while watching several videos at once. Much of the industrial logic of faster connectivity, such as greater use of sensors in factories, can be supplied by 4G networks. No device exists that makes a compelling business case for 5

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. Mr Webb invokes the aerospace industry to warn of the perils of betting on ever-faster speeds. “5G could end up being like Concorde—a superb feat of engineering but of limited value to all but a small minority.”

Awaiting renaissance

5G has already come at a cost to Vodafone. This year it slashed its dividend, partly to pay for a pricey spectrum auction in Germany. But like many of its peers, it sees 5G as a way to revitalise revenue growth. It says the new technology will support many more devices at home and at work than 4G does, will lower the cost to Vodafone of handling a lot of data, and improve the reliability of communications in everything from cars to hospitals. Its newish boss, Nick Read, is hoping to form a closer relationship with customers, who increasingly see wireless connectivity as a commodity, by offering tailor-made 5G services. He is also lobbying governments to spur investment (rather than competition) to avoid a 3G-style fiasco. He is cutting his own infrastructure costs by striking network-sharing deals with mobile operators in Britain, Spain and Italy.

Those are good ideas that may ease the 5G strain. But until the equivalent of a “killer app” comes along to bring the benefits of 5G to billions, it is not clear who will make much money from it. It is up to the telecoms firms to show that they can defy history.