Python 现金流断裂预警：自由现金流与短债覆盖

{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"b70fe6cb-53de-4d82-8981-fccc47166948","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"问题"},{"type":"hardBreak","attrs":{"id":"7bf61a8b-c87a-48af-9ef9-ee508e9d9efe"}},{"type":"text","text":"实体能不能活，最后看现金。经营现金流覆盖不了短期债务、自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）持续为负，就是断裂前兆。用 Python 把这几个信号一起算，标出断裂风险。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"19e70990-8df1-49b8-8aec-11f78378f9a3","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"示例代码"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"8cc2a80a-2eec-4c18-a700-dae696795922","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle","attrs":{"color":"","background":""}}],"text":"plaintext"}]},{"type":"codeBlock","attrs":{"id":"b4d5a6df-c6db-4585-98f7-2d0aade63224","language":"javascript","theme":"atom-one-dark","runtimes":0,"isHoverDragHandle":false,"key":"","languageByAi":"javascript"},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"def cashflow_break_risk(cfo, capex, short_debt, cash, cov_thr=1.0):\n fcf = cfo - capex\n cover = cfo / short_debt if short_debt else float('inf')\n alerts = []\n if fcf < 0:\n alerts.append((\"自由现金流为负\", fcf))\n if cover < cov_thr:\n alerts.append((\"经营现金流短债覆盖不足\", round(cover, 2)))\n if cash < short_debt:\n alerts.append((\"货币资金低于短债\", round(cash - short_debt, 2)))\n return alerts\n\nprint(cashflow_break_risk(300, 200, 500, 250))\n"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"d3801827-98a6-440d-b3ee-014ba8742a99","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"关键点"}]},{"type":"bulletList","attrs":{"id":"a150807d-cbd5-48db-b335-287cfb9e4938","isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"listItem","attrs":{"id":"8f477d7d-b47e-4e7f-8b9c-f2a3b0dc2d1f"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"0fcf9282-956d-44eb-9306-21f00631f8cf","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"自由现金流 = 经营现金流 - 资本开支，长期为负说明主业自身养不活扩张。"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","attrs":{"id":"dfcc6334-c0d5-4406-88ee-b53478775c3e"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"d479d028-b71b-4378-b553-21a5eacb40ee","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"覆盖倍数 = 经营现金流 / 短期债务，低于 1 意味着一年经营 cash 还不够还短债。"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","attrs":{"id":"6783e11d-7281-4147-8cba-024a186327c6"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"c7796e46-ef91-4b2c-b258-ba05b192a101","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"货币资金低于短债是最后一道红线，哪怕利润好看也可能瞬间周转不动。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"6ea66acf-0a7c-4948-8c98-6b8d28b53faf","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"小结"},{"type":"hardBreak","attrs":{"id":"404b57cc-3c29-4883-a835-db9cafece737"}},{"type":"text","text":"现金流断裂预警把\"实体会不会死\"量化成三个红灯，自由现金流、短债覆盖、货币资金三者任一爆掉都要拉警报。"}]},{"type":"horizontalRule","attrs":{"id":"f4f1bac0-e0b3-49e8-972b-ffe7f0fff9ae","isHoverDragHandle":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"5e2ff84a-8924-4f06-8e04-257c937c1c69","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"你更看重\"自由现金流为负\"还是\"短债覆盖不足\"？评论区说。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"c3b8cd57-10c4-471f-ad8f-2e853bcd4775","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"如果有用，点赞收藏关注，留下审计难题。下期预告：偿债能力综合评分预警（负债率+流动比率+利息保障）。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"cfc662a3-712a-4ebb-b71a-f13bd4c00f5b","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"会计师事务所的一名注册会计师"}]}]}