Uber还有望通吃网约车市场吗？ | 经济学人精读(71)

概要：打车App Uber上市以来很少盈利，股价也是上上下下。阅读本文时请思考：为什么Uber不能盈利？投资者会一直等下去吗？

Can Uber and Lyft ever make real money?

Ride-hailing seems a long way from generatingriches for investors

Aug 10th 2023

IT HAS BEEN a bumpy journey for investorsin Uber, the world’s biggest ride-hailing company, since it was listed in 2019.In its first six months as a public company Uber’s share price plunged by aquarter as doubts swirled over whether the perennial lossmaker would everturn a profit. Thereafter it has seesawed, soaring amid the pandemic-eracraze for tech stocks, then diving back down as rising interest rates spoiledinvestors’ appetite for businesses reliant on cheap funding.

注：Perennial /pəˈrɛniəl/多年生的；长青的；持久的。例句：Tulipsare a perennial flower, blooming year after year.（郁金香是一种多年生的花，年复一年开放。）

seesaw/ˈsiːˌsɔː/跷跷板；上下摇摆。例句：The children played on the seesaw in the park.（孩子们在公园里玩跷跷板。）

Since its nadir in July last yearsigns of greater financial discipline have pushed the price of Uber’s sharesback to where they first traded in 2019. Costs have come down; fares are up.This month the company reported an operating profit of $326m for the secondquarter of the year, its first time in the black. Uber’s glee washeightened on August 8th when Lyft, its domestic arch-rival, reportedyet another operating loss, of $159m. Lyft’s market value remains in the doldrums,down by 85% from the level at which its shares began trading publicly in 2019,six weeks before Uber’s.

注：Nadir /ˈneɪdɪr/最低点；最糟糕的时刻。例句：Afterlosing his job and going through a divorce, he felt like he had reached thenadir of his life.（失业并经历离婚后，他感觉自己的生活已经达到了最低谷。）

in theblack 表示盈利，亏损时是in the red。

glee /ɡliː/快乐，欢乐；愉快的情绪。例句：She couldn't hide her glee when shereceived the acceptance letter to her dream university.（收到梦想大学的录取通知书时，她无法掩饰自己的喜悦。）

arch-rival主要竞争对手，宿敌。

doldrum/ˈdoʊldrəm/低迷，停滞；无精打采。例句：The economy is currently in a doldrum, withslow growth and high unemployment.（经济目前处于低迷状态，增长缓慢，失业率高。）

Still, for Uber, breaking even is a lowbar for success. Even adding in the latest profit, the company has clocked up$31bn of net losses since its first available results in 2014. Investors nowhave $21bn of invested capital tied up in the company. Annualising its mostrecent quarterly operating profit implies a return on that capital of roughly5% after tax. That is less than half the company’s current cost of capital,suggesting that investors’ money could be more fruitfully deployed elsewhere.

The hope, of course, is that Uber’sprofits, having broken above ground, will now soar into the stratosphere.Hold your horses. In the past five years over 60% of the firm’s revenuegrowth has come from businesses other than ride-hailing. Most important hasbeen food delivery, which surged during the pandemic. Uber’s profitmargin—before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation—when ferrying mealsis less than half that when ferrying people.

注：Stratosphere /ˈstrætəˌsfɪr/ 平流层；高空。例句：The stratosphere is the layer of theEarth's atmosphere above the troposphere and below the mesosphere.（平流层是地球大气层中位于对流层之上、中间层之下的一层。）这里指Uber投资者希望其盈利快速增长。

Holdyour horses /hoʊld jɔːr ˈhɔːrsɪz/等一下，冷静一下。例句：Hold your horses! We need to gather all the information before making a decision.（等一下！在做决定之前我们需要收集所有信息。）

Uber promises that the business willcontinue becoming more lucrative as it matures. Yet margins for DoorDash, whichgenerates nearly three times Uber’s food-delivery sales in America, are barelybetter. In freight, Uber’s third line of business, the company is losing moneyas it fights for space in a crowded industry in the throes of a downturn.

注：in the throes of 在痛苦中。

Throe [θroʊ] 剧痛；艰难困苦的时期。例句：Shewas in the throes of labor when the doctor arrived.（她在医生到达时正在经历分娩的阵痛。）

A further concern is Uber’s focus onexpansion beyond America, where it is now scarcely growing. Although it doesnot split out profits by geography, its margins are probably best in America,where it captures nearly three-quarters of sales in the ride-hailing market.Elsewhere, it faces stiff competition from local rivals: Bolt and FREENOW inEurope, Gojek and Grab in South-East Asia, and Ola in India. That will keepa tight lid on margins.

注：keep a tight lid on margins 严格限制利润

Investors’ bet on Uber was predicatedon the idea that ride-hailing is a winner-takes-all business. Thatjustified torching billions of dollars in a race for market share, which Uberis, seeing Lyft’s woes, indeed winning—at least at home. Whether taking it allturns Uber into the colossal cash machine investors once hoped for isanother question. ■

注：Predicated [ˈprɛdɪkeɪtɪd] 基于某种前提或假设而断定的，预测的，推论的。例句：His success was predicated on years of hard work and dedication.（他的成功是基于多年的努力和奉献。）Predicate作名词时表示谓语，作动词时表示意味着。

winner-takes-all 赢家通吃。由于网络效应，互联网很多行业都是赢家通吃的。

colossal [kəˈlɑːsəl] 巨大的，庞大的，非常大的。例句：The building was a colossal structure, towering over the city skyline.（那座巨大的建筑高耸在城市的天际线上。）